Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Considering Postponing Purchasing? This may be the best time.

As many of you have read in the past, most of the statistics available show the DC Metro area as one of the growth leaders for the upcoming year. From home values increasing 4% between July '06 to July '07, condo market maintaining sales and over 50,000 jobs coming to the region over the next 14 months, there is no cause for the local market to shutter the way much of the rest of the country has done over the past 12 months. On top of that, I am expecting the Fed to reduce interest rates another .25% today, thereby enticing purchasers to jump on the bandwagon. What I will say is I have noticed a slowdown in the market, back to what I hear it was like before the real estate boom, homes sitting for longer, and investors pulling out unless margins significantly in their favor.

With that in mind, these next 3 months may be the best time to purchase. I am expecting a strong spring market, at least stronger than what we have right now and declining inventory on the market. If we look at the following chart I created this morning, based solely from the stats available on MLS, we can see that historically October and January have the lowest number of sales.

(CLICK THE IMAGE FOR CLEARER RESOLUTION)


Taking the month of settlement into account and, generally speaking, the settlement day occurring 45 days after ratification, or contract acceptance by both parties, it would be logical to assume that buyers will have the most leverage in September and December and the least in February. Compare this to the rule of thumb when negotiating on a car....always negotiate the last 5 days of the month...it may be the perfect time to buy.

20005

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