Post 14 Fannie Announces New Down Payment Requirement Key to Recovery Initiative

Fannie Mae announced the new down down payment requirements under their 'Keys to Recovery' initiative. Hopefully this will help stabilize the market but it only applies to single family homes as primary residences. What about the deteriorating condo market. Is there an end in sight?

USHomeAuction.com


RealtyTrac.com Washington DC

Post 13 - Will Higher Gas Prices Cause a Market Shift in Moving Back to Cities?

Accroding to AAA.com it cost an average of 52.2 cents per mile to drive a car in 2006 using $2.56 per gallon as the estimated cost for fuel. How will the recent increase in gas prices at over a 40% increase affect the real estate market?

Considering Postponing Purchasing? This may be the best time.

As many of you have read in the past, most of the statistics available show the DC Metro area as one of the growth leaders for the upcoming year. From home values increasing 4% between July '06 to July '07, condo market maintaining sales and over 50,000 jobs coming to the region over the next 14 months, there is no cause for the local market to shutter the way much of the rest of the country has done over the past 12 months. On top of that, I am expecting the Fed to reduce interest rates another .25% today, thereby enticing purchasers to jump on the bandwagon. What I will say is I have noticed a slowdown in the market, back to what I hear it was like before the real estate boom, homes sitting for longer, and investors pulling out unless margins significantly in their favor.

With that in mind, these next 3 months may be the best time to purchase. I am expecting a strong spring market, at least stronger than what we have right now and declining inventory on the market. If we look at the following chart I created this morning, based solely from the stats available on MLS, we can see that historically October and January have the lowest number of sales.

(CLICK THE IMAGE FOR CLEARER RESOLUTION)


Taking the month of settlement into account and, generally speaking, the settlement day occurring 45 days after ratification, or contract acceptance by both parties, it would be logical to assume that buyers will have the most leverage in September and December and the least in February. Compare this to the rule of thumb when negotiating on a car....always negotiate the last 5 days of the month...it may be the perfect time to buy.

20005

Dupont Down Under to REOPEN its Doors, er Staircases!!!

This past week a great friend of mine & I decided its about time someone committed to reopening that HUGE retail space right underneath Dupont Circle. For those of you who have no idea what I'm referring to, there is 28,000 sq ft of retail space right underneath the Dupont Circle streets, extending from the building foundations at the outer edge of the circle to the fountain in the middle, of which two halves are split by the Connecticut Ave underpass. Next time you are in the area take a look at the 7-8 stair cases boarded up by green boards that somewhat resemble metro entrances, located at nearly every corner of intersecting streets at the circle. As a point of reference, there is one located right next to CVS.

...back to the opening of Down Under...

About 11 years ago two city inspectors shut down the retail space due to health violations and several illegal practices taking place by the vendors in the space and it has been shut ever since. Those inspectors were the head of zoning, Vincent Ford, and former code inspector Jim Delgado. As an advocate for the development and improvements for the city, I have decided to commit to the reopening of the space under Dupont myself...which got me thinking...who better to enlist to help reopen the area than the two gentlemen that shut the area down. Nobody knows the violations of Dupont better then Delgado and Ford. Its simply impossible. I called Delgado this past week and he's in! I'm not sure how far we will get but what I can say is that if anyone is going to reopen Down Under, its going to be us.

For more info on the space, read a previous blog of mine HERE.

20005

What we do not know is what would be the best use of space. Have ideas? Post your comments below.

Gentrification: DC Could Lose is Black Majority Status

Over the weekend a report was released stating that if the population in DC continues its current rates, blacks may no longer have the majority of the city in 10 years time. One source, William Frey of the Brookings Institute, said that DC is one of the few cities noticing such a rapid change, and with reason. If we take a look at the past two census surveys released we will see the dramatic change that Frey mentions in his report. I found the surveys online at census.gov, who's studies show that between 2000 and 2005, the black population of the city decreased by 3%, from 60% to 57%, while the white population increased at 1%, from 31% to 32%. If we assume that the ratio of growth for both loss and gain will increase on an annual basis we can see that my estimates for the year that there may longer be a majority in the city will fall somewhere in between 2014 and 2018.










Its seems like gentrification may be inevitable for this city.

The census data can be found HERE.

20005

Today's Examiner..."Local Housing Market Stable as National Markets Keep Falling"

According to the Examiner today, on page 5, the local market has held steady for the month. At least so far. According to David Francis and Melissa Frederick, the DC and Baltimore regions have displayed "resiliency" against the turmoil of the rest of the country. NAR (National Association of Realtors) even reported a 3% increase in home pricing in Baltimore and Northern Virginia. In an article I wrote on August 10th, Average DC Home Price Up 4% over July '06, further data shows the District is up 4% over a 12 month period from July '06-July '07.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR told David & Melissa that "the inner counties [are] doing very well," buoyed by strong job growth. Yun went on to say that the outer counties are picking up and will soon be following suit.

At this point, at least through the end of the year, despite market stability, it seems to be an uphill battle. With the media exposure of a market downturn across the nation in addition to the seasonal trends of fall & winter, we may not directly understand our stability until next spring, which both myself and one of my mortgage brokers from Countrywide, Leila Search, are predicting will peak rather early in the season.

I can't express how grateful I am for having the market stability of the area. Fortunately for everyone DC has provided a "safe haven" for us property owners despite what the rest of the country is undergoing in these undoubtedly difficult times in our industry.

Melissa & Davids article can be found here.

Condo Settlements in DC Maintain Stability Despite Mortgage Industry

As EVERYONE has been reading, there has been more than enough reporting on the trouble with the mortgage industry and as of reports released today by CNN, is also affecting the prime mortgage borrowers, not just the sub-prime or Alt-A borrowers. Well we all know that trouble is on the horizon and few can deny that but how has DC been faring through the troubled times, especially in the condo market?

I thought I would run an analysis over the past year and here is what I was able to find out.












It might just be me but that graph looks pretty stable.

BTW, click the picture to enlarge

Champlain St Condo As Seen in the Washington Examiner

2328 Champlain #404 was just featured in this weeks Examiner Real Estate Section. To see the actual listing CLICK HERE.

Why do buyers wait until the media says 'its time to buy' to buy?

I just read an article by Elizabeth Weintraub of About.com who made a wonderful point about buyers timing their purchases. Elizabeth questions why buyers wait for a sellers market, when competition increases and the media reports increasing sales volume, as if the media influences when an intelligent time to buy will be (we all know they spend millions on market research, predict housing increases, the weather and consumer spending, said facetiously). WHY WAIT? If you are a qualified buyer with decent credit score can you think of a better time to buy than the winter months after a downturn in the market? If you can please comment on this post. I can't. DC's prices have increased in many areas in the worst market in 7 years, job growth in and around the city is increasing by 40,000-50,000 over the next 18 months, and thats just by my amateurish research.

THE EQUATION

Increasing Prices + Increasing Job Growth + Increasing Population + Government Turnover + Slowing Development = ?

GREATER DEMAND & LOWERED SUPPLY - OR - HIGHER PRICES!!!!!!!!

I'm not saying that this city won't become affordable to may buyers (at least not yet), but if you are considering purchasing but have postponed your purchase for a later time, rethink the logic here, you just might be in for a good deal.

Read her article HERE.

Its Finally Official, Above Ground Street Cars Return to the District

After a recent blog, I believe back in June of this year, NBC confirms that DC will re-establish the above ground street car line in two areas of DC. The first, along a several mile long line in Anacostia beginning downtown, near the exit to 295 bridge. The other, to my understanding, would be along H St NE from Union Station heading East towards and down Benning towards the stadium. In case you haven't driven along the streets of H St NE lately, you will notice the work being done to the center of the road. Apparently, despite the exposure the city has released regarding the work being done, this work is in preparation for the expected street car release in 2009, with groundbreaking for their line this winter.

The city's defense....to increase the capacity of the city to move people throughout the streets, not vehicles. Honestly, Im not quite sure how I feel about the new development of Streetcars...we already have buses and metros to get us from place to place, but why the added congestion by taking up two lanes of the cities busiest thoroughfares? On the other hand, it will add to the atmosphere, creating something like that of Boston, allowing for easier commutes and a more well-kept transportation industry.

What are your thoughts?

I stand corrected, DC puts out RFEI on Poplar Point

Damn sources....this past week the Office of the Deputy Mayor for Planning and Economic Development announced their RFEI, thats request for expressions of interest, on the infamous 150 acre (as per the RFEI) site Poplar Point. According to my original blog, nearly two and a half weeks ago, I offered the confirmation that Poplar Point had received and accepted a proposal for the development of the site and DC United was one of the main attractions to the area. I stand corrected.

In the RFEI, released August 10th, the city formerly announced that they were looking for world-class investors with a proven track record for waterfront development who had strong financial backing to submit proposals for the site. Additionally, the RFEI requests for the use of the new DC United stadium but explicitly states that its not required.

So I read the RFEI and its detail far surpasses the expectation I would have for the cities effort for a proposal such as this. Its worth the read if you have about 30 minutes and it can be found by clicking here.

One of the statements made in the RFEI was Fenty's mandate for 30% of the units consisting of affordable housing. If you take a look an my blog on affordable housing, you will understand this is the first exposure Fenty has had to support his position on the cities effort to maintain affordable housing throughout the development of the city.

By the way, if there is any interest in this $200 Million dollar investment, the due date for expression of interest is October 19th, 2007.

Average DC Home Price Up 4% over July '06. Not what you expected?

As many of you may have been reading throughout the media world, most of the country is up in a panic regarding the mortgage industry and real estate price fallout. In most places across the country, with the exception of what I would consider the larger 12 cities, this panic may have justification, just not here.

This afternoon the Washington Business Journal released a report stating that home prices in DC are up 4% last month vs July of '06. Crazy you say? Not really consider the upcoming development that we all are looking forward to in addition to the political turnover we are about to undergo. According to the WBJ, DC's average sale price in July '07 was $431,000, up $16,000 over last July's average sale price at $415,000.

I'd like to stop there an and analyze exactly whats going on in this city. I believe we all could reasonably say that this past year was one of the worst years in real estate in the past seven years, right? Well, despite the media hype (having nothing better to write about), the mortgage subprime fallout, the price of gasoline increasing nearly 35 cents a gallon and our country spending $80 billion on the war, DC still had gains of 4% in 12 months. Hows that for financial security?

With all that going on why wouldn't you purchase, especially with the upcoming anticipation of a strong spring market of '08 and continued growth and investment by the government in local development.

The article can be viewed here.

Whats one of the most important developments in Adams Morgan right now?

As if there wasn't enough development in Adams Morgan already, Douglas Jemal is developing a site in Adams Morgan to be the new Harris Teeter Grocery Store. But thisa is not any grocery store but the only grocery store for blocks. In fact the new Harris Teeter is the only grocery store for 6 blocks. Not that far you say? Maybe its just me but I dont really want to carry groceries much further than that, especially in one of the areas of the highest rate of population increases in the city. This coming year there are in the range of 6-12 new developments in the area, 2 of which I'm representing in the upcoming year.

Their new site, at the intersection of 17th St NW and Kalorama Rd NW should provide the perfect opportunity between the areas, whats more is the gap that Harris Teeter bridges between two traditional grocery stores and the environmental friendly store of tomorrow. The current proposed plan includes 39,000 sq ft of retail space on what used to be a roller rink. The next question you may ask is 'Who is the brains behind the operation?' Nobody less than the infamous Douglas Jemal a.k.a. Douglas Development, a company known for nothing less than their front running ideas contributing to the redevelopment of nearly the entire city.

In addition to the 39,000 sq ft of retail space is a proposed 120,000 sq ft of office space at the modest projected cost of $15,000,000. Despite a projected opening date of Fall '06, the newly anticipated date is Feb, '08. We'll see how that goes.


My apologies to KP for getting this blog out so late in the day.

You say the market is crashing? Take a look at this.

After some lengthy conversations with associates about what the future holds for DC I wanted to take a look at market trends for myself, away from the media hype and what seems to be panicking consumers in our area. What I did was download the data from our local real estate database, MLS/Multiple Listing Service, from all transactions in the subdivisions of Kalorama, Dupont Circle & Logan Circle. I used the provided data from the system to break down the cost per square foot of every condo sold since June 1, 2006 until July 31, 2007 and graphed the cost per square foot of every sold condo against their date of sale and this is what I got:

IF THE IMAGE IS NOT CLEAR, CLICK IT TO OPEN IN A NEW WINDOW





























So I ask you again...is it a good time to purchase in DC or not?



If you are looking for more information about any specific neighborhoods in the DC area please feel free to contact me and I will run a full analysis including trending and forecasting.

Guess Who Follows Suit in the Affordable Housing Market? Sotheby's International!!!!

This morning Ben Casselman, from RealEstateJournal.com, a guide for real estate developed by the Wall Street Journal, announced that Sotheby's International Realty will be expanding their vision by representing affordable housing. To put it a bit more succinctly, they'll be selling double-wide trailers in California. As many of you may well know, Sotheby's is traditionally known for their niche in the upper echelons of property pricing and estates including many at the waterfront. So why the change? If you read my post on my predictions on the strongest growth market segment here, which happens to be affordable housing, a term I use for homes under $300,000, you might understand why Sotheby's is headed in that direction.

According to Casselman, nearly 6% of homes represented by Sotheby's on their site happens to be under $250,000, and that proportion is growing. The cause for Sotheby's expansion of ammo happens to come as a result of an increasingly competitive ultra-pricey market segment nationwide. Many new brokerages are opening their doors to the uber-weathly and in my opinion, Sotheby's had to take a new market position to maintain competitiveness.

Impressive New Development in South East DC

This afternoon when finishing examining a lot acquisition in Barry Farms with one of my clients, I happen be driving down Morris St SE as I looked to my left and to my amazement was a brand new, just framed, HUGE condo development named Grandview DC. Its not just the name either. I went around to the back of the block to look in and the view is incredible, it overlooks the entire city. I did some research on Google but couldn't find a thing, and their website is down too. All their sign says is Luxury Townhomes in the low $300's. When its up click here to see the development. For now I have no information but when its available Ill post here. Until then enjoy this video and some pics.

Eastern Market Finally Open for Business

This afternoon Rachel Cooper of About.com and the DC / Capital Regoin announced that Eastern Market will finally be opening for business on August 25th. Only $30,000,000 later. Since the fire that burned the market towards the end of April this year, the vendors that depended on the market to provide generations of farmers a location to sell goods have been unable to operate.
Good Luck to all of the vendors in this upcoming season.

Where has Jesse Been?

To those of you who are as dedicated to this blog as we all are about DC, I must apologize for being a bit more 'offline' than I would have liked to have been. Recently, I have been having meeting after meeting with developers across the city lining up to get insight, recommendations and designing a course of action in everyones plan for their releases in the upcoming spring market of 2008. Currently, KTRE is undertaking what I would consider significant steps towards our growing development team and a strong, and soon very happy, client base.

From a 14 unit building in Deanwood just 100 yards to the Deanwood metro which is about to be gutted and remodeled using what I consider luxury details in an affordable housing market, to a 42 unit complex in Randle Heights, a 20 unit in Barry Farms. Next year is sure to be a killer. An exciting one at that! Whats more exciting are some of the other possible developments we are working with, from a $7,000,000 lot in Sandy Spring, to the possible acquisition of a hotel site downtown, to another project with Gotham Development and their lineup of groundbreaking ideas involving some of the most influential faces in the city. What a year!

Basically what I'm trying to say is I'll do my best to stay on top of providing the best information to everyone across the city, but its crunch time. In the meantime, please email me if you have any questions about development across the city. I would love to help answer.

Rockville Town Square: No Sales = Conversion to Rentals

Earlier Rockville Town Square announced that it will no longer be selling what remains of its 600 unit building and instead convert the remaining units to rental apartments. Due mainly to the over development of Montgomery County near Metro's and the tightening of lender requirements.

A look at Rockville Condo Stats over the last 30 days:
Average Sales Price...............................................$399,000
Active Condos...........................................................149
Condos Under Contract:..............................................41
Settled Condos.........................................................24
Average Days on Market Active Condos.....................83
Average Days on Market Condos Under Contract.......79
Average Days on Market For Settled Condos.............58
Average Dollar / SQ FT for Active Condos...............$328
Average Dollar / SQ FT for Settled Condos..............$312

Alright, so lets analyze this data: If your selling a condo and its been on the market for 58 days or longer and you are not priced below $312 / sqft, its time to reduce or you may face holding that property upwards of one month longer at best before receiving an offer. In addition, we are approaching the winter market, an even more difficult time to sell so chances are prices will drop further and if you dont want to hold your condo through the winter it might be time to consider reducing.

GOOD LUCK!

Home Sales Expected to Pick Up?

According to Brian Block (Brianblock.com) a local Virginia based Realtor with a similar blog site, research suggests that the local housing market will stabilize if not increase come years end. Brian's thorough research seems to show that 53,200 new jobs were created throughout the DC Metro area in the year ending May, 2007, nearly 8,000 above the 15 year average of 45,000 per year. In addition, our unemployment rate is slightly lower than the national average of 3.1% at 2.9% locally and our rate is the second lowest in the nation.

What does all this mean? Strong job growth, low unemployment rates and a stabilizing housing market means a strong future for housing prices and growth. Unfortunately with the media portraying a crashing housing market around the rest of the country, nobody has taken the time to study our local market, which is in my opinion one of the strongest in the country, outside of New York, NY.

If you are considering waiting to purchase, consider your options now, especially with a recently reduced buyer pool due to sub-prime lender fallout.